Polymarket traders have pushed the estimated probability of the U.S. CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to a new low. The move follows prolonged Senate negotiations and disputes over ethics restrictions for public officials connected to digital assets.

The bill is intended to define the division of authority between the SEC and CFTC, set rules for digital commodity platforms and address parts of decentralized finance.

Prediction-market prices reflect the positions of participating traders rather than an official congressional assessment. The implied probability can change quickly if lawmakers publish a revised text, reach a bipartisan agreement or schedule a formal vote.